Market Overview

Dear Investor,

It’s been a week of bluster and backtracking the likes of which we’ve perhaps never witnessed before — even by Trumpian standards.

The tariff rate on Chinese goods has been jacked up to 125%. No talks. No deals. No softening. For Beijing, the signal is clear: Trump may have blinked with his allies, but he’s doubling down on his biggest rival.

Markets are caught between these two currents. On one hand, there’s relief — equities have bounced back, and risk appetite has tentatively improved. On the other, there’s the lurking threat of re-escalation, with a 90-day fuse now quietly burning in the background.

As ever, this is less about the tariffs themselves and more about the broader uncertainty they create. Business leaders and investors don’t know where the next punch will come from — or when. And in a world already wary of global supply chain fragmentation, that uncertainty does more damage than any one tariff line.

We’ll be watching the data, the rhetoric, and the market reaction closely over the coming days. For now, volatility remains the name of the game.

Wishing you a fantastic weekend,

Tom

Market Movers

On the rise: Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP) +17.8% on the week

Greatland Gold’s share price has surged this week after the company confirmed it has formally begun the process of listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). The move involves a UK scheme of arrangement that will see Greatland Gold and its subsidiaries come under a newly incorporated Australian parent company—Greatland Resources Ltd. The company has now filed the required documents with the UK Court to kick off the process, with shareholder votes scheduled for May and dual listing on both the ASX and AIM expected in June. Investors appear to have welcomed the clarity, with the share price jumping on Thursday’s news.

Timing-wise, it helps that gold itself has caught a strong bid. Prices have rallied sharply this year amid rising uncertainty over global trade policy—fuelled in part by renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump. That’s pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like gold, and in turn, has lifted the tide for gold stocks more broadly. Greatland has benefited from both stock-specific news and the macro backdrop, and the recent momentum reflects a blend of company execution and a supportive sector tailwind.

REGENCY VIEW:

Greatland Gold remains a high-risk, high-reward play with limited current revenue but a forecast for explosive earnings growth as production ramps up. While the business is still burning cash and profitability metrics remain weak, the company’s progress in developing its assets and transitioning to full-scale production puts it on the radar for growth-focused investors.

On the slide: Tesco (LSE:TSCO) -6.2% on the week

Shares in Tesco took a tumble on Thursday following the release of its preliminary results. While the retailer reported strong growth in group sales, up 3.5% to £63.6 billion, and an increase in adjusted operating profit by 10.6%, the market seemed less impressed by other financials. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose by 17%, reflecting strong trading performance. However, statutory operating profit saw a slight decline of 3.9%, and profit before tax dropped 3.2%. This combination of mixed results, despite strong sales growth, appears to have dampened investor sentiment.

On a positive note, Tesco’s UK market share grew by 67bps to 28.3%, marking its highest level since 2016. The retailer’s continued focus on customer satisfaction and product innovation, including the launch of 1,600 new or improved products, helped bolster its market position. Its Clubcard loyalty scheme, now used by 84% of UK households, and other digital initiatives, contributed to its competitive edge in a challenging market.

Despite these successes, the outlook for the coming year remains uncertain. Tesco has guided for an adjusted operating profit of between £2.7 billion and £3.0 billion for FY 2025/26, which is lower than the £3.13 billion reported for 2024/25. Although the company has made substantial investments in its operations, the competitive landscape and inflationary headwinds present ongoing challenges, likely contributing to the market’s cautious reaction.

REGENCY VIEW:

Tesco’s dominant market position, modest forward PE and well-covered 4.3% dividend yield gives it plenty of appeal to income-focused investors. With steady growth in earnings and cash generation, we believe it still earns its place as a reliable compounder in any defensive portfolio.

Sector Snapshot

It’s been a week of sharp reversals across the board, with the Energy, Healthcare and Telecom sectors taking the heaviest hits. Energy led the declines, down more than 13%, as crude oil prices tumbled from recent highs—driven by a mix of geopolitical tension fatigue, profit-taking, and a softening global demand narrative. Healthcare stocks struggled in the wake of Trump’s renewed focus on tariffs, with speculation swirling around fresh levies on pharmaceutical imports. Telecoms also found themselves under pressure, likely caught up in broader defensive sector selling as rate expectations shifted. On the other side of the tape, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Staples weathered the storm better than most. Investors may be favouring names with pricing power and operational flexibility in an increasingly volatile trade environment, as this week’s chaos in Washington continues to unsettle global markets.

UK Price Action

Last Friday’s sharp drop reset the technical landscape for the FTSE 100. Momentum has flipped firmly to the downside, and whether or not the index ticks the official -20% box, we’re now operating in bear market territory. That doesn’t mean we can’t see rebounds—but it does mean our mindset needs adjusting. In this kind of environment, rallies are more likely to be short-lived and sold into, rather than the start of something more durable. For now, price action this week has carved out two clear inflection points, giving us useful near-term levels to work with on both the support and resistance side. Until the index can reclaim lost ground with conviction, the path of least resistance remains lower.