18th Jun 2025. 9.00am

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Regency View:
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BP rallies as Middle East tensions boost energy stocks
BP’s (BP.) share price has climbed more than 9% over the past week, fuelled by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have sent crude prices sharply higher. The recent Israeli strike on Iran has reignited fears of regional disruption, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. With markets pricing in a potential risk premium on supply, energy majors like BP have benefitted from the spike in underlying commodity prices.
While much of the attention has been on crude, natural gas markets are also on edge, and BP’s integrated operations across oil and gas position it well to ride any volatility. Investors may also be betting on stronger refining margins and trading performance, areas where BP has historically delivered outperformance during periods of market dislocation. With the FTSE 100 gaining ground, energy names have led the charge and BP’s scale and liquidity make it a go-to stock in times of uncertainty.

Beyond the macro tailwinds, BP’s longer-term repositioning towards lower-carbon energy hasn’t gone unnoticed. But in this latest move, it’s clear that old-world oil is back in the driving seat. Until tensions ease or the technical rally in crude runs out of steam, the short-term momentum in BP shares could have further room to run.
EasyJet under pressure as Middle East tensions weigh on travel stocks
easyJet (EZJ) shares have fallen sharply in the past week as the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has impacted travel. Rising geopolitical tensions have led airlines to cancel or divert flights away from airspace in the region. For carriers like EasyJet, this adds fuel cost pressure at a time when margins are already tight, and forces operational headaches just as the summer travel season begins to ramp up.
The broader sell-off in airline stocks reflects a combination of macro risks. Brent crude’s surge has forced carriers to reroute services which has increasing flight times, disrupting schedules, and potentially impacting forward bookings. In this kind of environment, investors often take a more cautious stance, especially on short-haul and low-cost carriers exposed to swings in fuel prices.

EasyJet’s exposure to European leisure travel makes it particularly sensitive to any slowdown in consumer sentiment or spike in operating costs. Uncertainty is never a friend of the travel industry, and as long as tensions remain high in the Middle East, airline valuations may continue to face turbulence.
Halma hit new trend highs
Halma (HLMA) hit new trend highs last week following a bullish set of full-year results and an upbeat outlook that saw shares surge more than 5% to a record high.
The company comfortably beat profit expectations, delivering a 16% jump in adjusted pretax profit to £459.4 million, ahead of consensus forecasts. Management also forecast organic revenue growth in the upper single digits for the year ahead, giving investors confidence that momentum is set to continue into 2026. The firm’s ability to consistently perform across its safety, healthcare, and environmental segments underpins the kind of dependable growth story the market loves to reward.

While many global firms are wrestling with the knock-on effects of rising trade tensions and tariffs under President Trump’s second term, Halma appears well-positioned to weather the storm. With around 90% of its U.S. sales produced domestically and more than 45 subsidiaries sourcing locally, the business has a natural hedge against supply chain shocks. This decentralised structure gives the group an edge when it comes to navigating geopolitical uncertainty, and the finance chief made clear that any required adjustments are already well understood and manageable.
Mitie release strong full year results and snap up Marlowe
Mitie (MTO) has kicked off the new financial year with strong momentum, posting a 13% rise in group revenue to over £5 billion and an 11% increase in operating profit before exceptional items.
The company also delivered £143 million in free cash flow, completed a £100 million share buyback, and lifted its full-year dividend by 8%. This performance marks a solid start to Mitie’s FY25–FY27 strategic plan, with record levels of contract awards, a growing order book, and a sizeable pipeline that now tops £23.7 billion. Management struck an upbeat tone, highlighting confidence in delivering on their transformation targets as they invest in scaling up core capabilities.

The real headline-grabber, however, was Mitie’s recommended £366 million cash and share offer for Marlowe, a familiar name for our AIM Investor members. Marlowe has long been one of our featured small caps, known for its roll-up model in compliance and risk management. Mitie’s acquisition is being pitched as a “strategically and financially compelling” move that strengthens its position in compliance services, with £30 million of cost synergies expected. Once complete, the deal will see Mitie become a clear leader in the growing ‘Facilities Compliance’ space a move that could reshape the competitive landscape and accelerate its long-term growth agenda.
From a broader strategic perspective, the Marlowe acquisition complements Mitie’s own trajectory of expanding through bolt-on deals, with three infill acquisitions already completed last year. While renewals fell slightly due to the loss of two public sector contracts, the company’s growing new business pipeline suggests the setback is likely to be short-lived. With a strong balance sheet, low leverage, and a clear ambition to drive both revenue and margin expansion, Mitie enters FY26 on firm footing with the added firepower of Marlowe now set to take its capabilities up a gear.
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