21st May 2025. 9.01am

Regency View:
Update

Regency View:
Update
Digital growth and financial resilience drive Airtel Africa’s momentum
Airtel Africa (AAF) delivered a solid operational performance for the year ended 31 March 2025, marked by customer growth and deepening digital engagement. The total customer base expanded by 8.7% to 166.1 million, while smartphone penetration climbed to 44.8%. Data usage surged, with a 14.1% rise in data customers and a 30.4% increase in usage per customer, boosting data ARPU by 15.4% in constant currency. Airtel Money continued its upward trajectory, with subscriber numbers up 17.3% and annualised transaction value hitting $145bn. A strategic network investment, including 2,583 new sites and 3,300km of fibre, supported this strong digital momentum.
Revenue grew 21.1% in constant currency to $4.96bn, though headline figures showed a 0.5% decline due to FX pressures. Voice, data, and mobile money services all contributed to the topline, with mobile money revenue rising nearly 30%. Despite the currency headwinds and higher fuel costs, EBITDA margins improved quarter-on-quarter, recovering from 45.3% in Q1 to 47.3% in Q4. Profit after tax rebounded strongly to $328m, a significant turnaround from the $89m loss the previous year, thanks largely to fewer foreign exchange and derivative losses.

Capital allocation remained disciplined. Capex came in lower than expected at $670m due to the deferment of data centre investments, though the company plans to increase this to up to $750m in FY26. Airtel Africa also reduced its foreign currency debt by $702m, shifting the majority of OpCo debt into local currencies. Leverage increased as a result of tower lease renewals, but the company maintained a robust capital structure. A final dividend of 3.9 cents brings the total for the year to 6.5 cents per share, up 9.2%, with an additional $120m returned via buybacks.
CEO Sunil Taldar highlighted the progress made on Airtel’s refreshed strategy, including a 20% growth in smartphone users and a 47.5% jump in data traffic. With momentum accelerating in Q4, especially in Nigeria, he pointed to further upside in EBITDA margins and long-term growth as digital inclusion deepens. Taldar also confirmed ongoing preparations for the Airtel Money IPO, targeted for the first half of 2026, while cautioning that execution would depend on market conditions.
Auction Tech posts solid first half with strategic growth on track
Auction Technology (ATG) posted a 3% rise in revenue to $89m in the first half, with adjusted EBITDA up 8% to $38.5m and operating profit jumping 43% to $15m. The adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 43%, helped by lower admin expenses, while basic EPS nudged up to 5.7c. Strong cash generation of $38.3m and a cut in net debt to $106.5m have improved the balance sheet, giving the group room to manoeuvre. A $40m share buyback programme is already underway.
Marketplace momentum held steady despite a mixed macro backdrop. GMV excluding real estate came in at $1.7bn, up 1%, with a broadly flat conversion rate. Encouragingly, the take rate ticked higher to 4.6% thanks to growing uptake of the group’s value-added services. Revenue from atgAMP, atgShip, and atgPay rose 14% year-on-year, demonstrating continued traction with both auctioneers and bidders.

ATG has made meaningful progress on several product initiatives, including the rollout of the single-upload feature on its cross-listing solution, atgXL. Management also highlighted early signs of success from changes aimed at improving bidder experience and engagement. A refreshed leadership team brings added depth as the group prepares for its next growth phase.
While macroeconomic volatility and US tariffs remain wildcards, management maintained full-year guidance for 4–6% revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 45–46%. March showed some slowdown in activity, but trading stabilised in April. The strong first half, robust cash generation, and disciplined capital allocation put ATG in a good position to continue compounding from here.
Centrica holds steady amid trading challenges
Centrica (CNA) has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 profit guidance and plans to increase its dividend to 5.5p per share, despite facing mixed performance across its divisions. At its AGM, the company acknowledged that British Gas Residential Energy was hit by warmer-than-expected weather in Q2 but still expects it to land within its sustainable earnings range. Encouragingly, both residential and business supply segments have seen organic customer growth so far this year.
Centrica Energy is currently tracking toward the lower end of its expected profit range, due largely to weaker performance in gas and power trading. However, LNG and renewable trading operations (RETO) remain strong. Centrica Energy Storage+ is now expected to deliver a larger-than-anticipated loss, possibly nearing the upper end of its £50m–£100m range. The company is in discussions with the UK government to unlock £2bn of investment to expand and convert the Rough storage site for hydrogen readiness.

Looking ahead, Centrica flagged ongoing risks from weather variability, commodity prices, regulatory shifts, and policy changes. Group profitability is still expected to be weighted to the first half of the year. While potential global trade restrictions remain a watchpoint, Centrica said its diversified supply chains mean there’s currently no expected material impact on financial results.
DCC focuses on energy as divestment unlocks value
DCC (DCC) delivered a solid set of full-year results to 31 March 2025, with total adjusted operating profit rising 4.9% on a constant currency basis to £703.6 million. The key growth engine was DCC Energy, which posted an 8.5% rise, offsetting a decline in the Technology division. Free cash flow remained strong at £588.8 million, converting at 84%, and the Group extended its track record of consistent shareholder returns by proposing a 5% increase to the annual dividend—marking 31 consecutive years of growth.
The most significant development this year was the agreed sale of DCC Healthcare for an enterprise value of £1.05 billion. This move simplifies the Group structure and frees up capital to focus exclusively on Energy, which management sees as its highest-returning and most promising area. The company plans to return £800 million of proceeds to shareholders, starting with a £100 million buyback programme. The disposal is expected to complete in the third quarter of 2025, with management highlighting the strategic clarity and flexibility the transaction brings.

During the year, DCC also exited certain lower-returning Energy operations in Hong Kong and Macau while ramping up investment in higher-growth, higher-margin segments across Europe. The Group’s “Cleaner Energy in Your Power” strategy continues to guide acquisitions that support decarbonisation and energy transition. Donal Murphy, Chief Executive, said the company is now better placed to focus capital and talent on its most scalable and profitable opportunities.
Looking ahead, DCC expects further adjusted operating profit growth in FY26, with ongoing strategic progress and development activity underpinning performance. With a leaner structure and a clear mandate to grow in Energy, the business appears set to benefit from both operational leverage and industry tailwinds. Management remains confident in its long-term strategy and sees Energy as the core engine of value creation going forward.
Premier Foods turns up the heat with strong results and bigger dividend
Premier Foods (PFD) delivered a robust set of full-year results to 29 March 2025, as branded volumes surged and profit outpaced expectations. Headline revenue rose 3.5% to £1.15 billion, while branded sales jumped 5.2%, crossing the £1 billion mark for the first time. Trading profit climbed 6% to £187.8 million, and adjusted profit before tax rose nearly 9% to £169.3 million. Strong cash generation helped bring net debt down by £92 million to £143.6 million, reducing leverage to just 0.7x EBITDA. Reflecting the company’s growing financial strength and improved pension position, the board announced a 62% hike in the dividend to 2.8p per share.
The standout factor in this year’s performance was volume-led branded growth, which was complemented by steady market share gains across both value and volume. Mr Kipling Signature Bites and Ambrosia Deluxe stood out as top-performing premium lines, while Nissin noodles continued their double-digit sales run, boosted by the successful rollout of larger pot formats. Premier’s branded growth model proved resilient in a challenging consumer environment, allowing the group to expand margins and support reinvestment into capacity, automation, and innovation.

Strategic progress was equally encouraging. Capital investment rose 26% to £41.4 million, backing efficiency upgrades and future growth. New categories delivered a 46% revenue jump, thanks in part to launches like Ambrosia porridge pots. Meanwhile, international sales grew 23%, with solid momentum across all target regions. Acquired brands The Spice Tailor and FUEL10K also maintained double-digit growth, validating Premier’s acquisition strategy and opening the door to further bolt-ons that fit within its branded playbook.
Looking ahead, Premier expects growth to be more balanced between price and volume, underpinned by an ambitious innovation pipeline. With the pension burden easing, the group now has greater flexibility to reinvest, reward shareholders, and pursue M&A opportunities that meet its disciplined return criteria. Management remains confident in its growth pillars and reiterated its unchanged outlook for Trading profit growth in FY26.
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