25th Sep 2024. 8.57am

Regency View:

Update

Regency View:

Update

Babcock’s performance is right on target

Defence tech company Babcock International (BAB) released a positive trading update last week, signalling a strong start to the financial year and reassuring investors of its ongoing stability and growth prospects.

The update covered the first five months of the fiscal year, ending August 31, 2024, and indicated that the company’s performance aligned with the Board’s expectations. Babcock reported good organic revenue growth, particularly in its civil and naval nuclear sectors and the land sector. This growth comes despite challenges from previous periods, including last year’s significant license fees from the Polish MIECZNIK programme. The increase in underlying operating profit reflects the company’s resilience and ability to navigate a competitive defence market.

Babcock maintained its full-year guidance and made significant strides in strategic initiatives, including the launch of H&B Defence, a joint venture with HII, to enhance capabilities in support of Australia’s AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program. Additionally, the reopening of the 9 Dock in Devonport is set to facilitate a £560 million maintenance program for HMS Victorious, vital for the UK’s continuous at-sea deterrent strategy.

Babcock also secured a contract extension with PGZ SA to support Poland’s Miecznik frigate program until 2031. With half-year results due to be published on November 13, 2024, we would expect to see Babcock’s share price strengthen leading up to this release.

BAB Daily Cande Chart

BAB Daily Cande Chart

Bytes achieves double-digit profit growth

Bytes Technology (BYIT) released a robust half-year trading update last week, reflecting strong performance for the financial half-year ended August 31, 2024.

The software, cloud and AI company continued the positive trends highlighted in its AGM Trading Update from July, achieving impressive double-digit growth in both Gross Invoiced Income and Adjusted Operating Profit, each rising by around 13%. Gross Profit also saw a healthy increase of approximately 9%.

Bytes ended the first half with a net cash position of £71.5 million, demonstrating solid financial management, even after distributing £35.3 million in final and special dividends during the period.

Bytes trading statement said that cash conversion rate for the first half indicates a typical weighting towards the second half, with expectations for strong conversion across the full year. CEO Sam Mudd expressed confidence in its growth strategy. He emphasised that Bytes Technology is well-positioned to capitalise on the increasing demand for services in cloud computing, cybersecurity, and AI. The company will release half-year results on October 15.  

BYIT Daily Cande Chart

BYIT Daily Cande Chart

Rentokil drop amid North American setbacks and profit warning

Shares in Rentokil (RTO) have dropped sharply following a profit warning tied to challenges in its North American division, particularly the integration of Terminix. This has resulted in a £50 million hit to adjusted operating earnings, compounded by unfavourable currency movements. Despite this, we remain calm and continue to hold Rentokil in our list of FTSE Investor open positions.

The company’s fundamentals remain strong, with steady revenue growth to £5.41 billion and a robust operating margin of 11.87%. While North America has underperformed, other segments are performing well, and management is addressing the operational challenges.

Rentokil’s valuation also remains reasonable with a PE ratio of 15.7, a 2.6% dividend yield, and healthy free cash flow per share (19.7p). The company’s balance sheet is solid, with manageable debt and a strong book value of £4.16 billion.

Although shares have dropped 45% over the past year, Rentokil’s market leadership and long-term stability — supported by consistent dividend growth — make a solid case for holding through this temporary downturn.

RTO Daily Cande Chart

RTO Daily Cande Chart

Trainline tracks ahead of the curve in first half

Trainline’s (TRN) share price jumped higher following the release of a bullish trading update earlier this month.

The ticketing platform reported a strong performance for the first half of the financial year, showing notable resilience and growth. For the six months ending August 31, 2024, net ticket sales surged to £3.0 billion, marking a 14% increase year-on-year, outpacing the company’s guidance for FY2025, which projected growth between 8% and 12%. The total revenue also saw a healthy rise to £229 million, up 17% year-on-year, surpassing the previous expectations of 7% to 11% growth.

This growth can be attributed to the growing adoption of digital ticketing, with UK Consumer net ticket sales reaching £2.0 billion, a 15% increase from the previous year. The shift towards digital was evident, with e-ticket penetration climbing to 51% of total ticket sales, up from 46% in H1 FY2024. Notably, the impact of strike actions was less significant compared to last year, contributing positively to the overall performance.

Looking ahead, Trainline has raised its full-year guidance for both net ticket sales and revenue growth, now expecting to operate at the top end of their earlier ranges. Adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to exceed previous projections. Additionally, Trainline is actively engaging in a share buyback program, having repurchased £24 million of its own shares as part of a £75 million initiative that began earlier this year.

TRN Daily Cande Chart

TRN Daily Cande Chart

Volution shares jump following £144m Fantech acquisition

Volution (FAN) surged higher on Friday after announcing its agreement to acquire the Fantech Group for AUD$280 million (£144 million), marking a significant strategic move for the company. This acquisition is poised to enhance Volution’s market presence in the Australasian region, where Fantech is a leading provider of both commercial and residential ventilation solutions.

The deal involves an initial consideration of AUD$220 million (£112.9 million) on a debt-free basis, with an additional AUD$60 million (£30.8 million) payable twelve months after completion. For the financial year ending March 31, 2024, Fantech reported solid financials, including revenue of AUD$177 million (£90.8 million) and EBITDA of AUD$33.3 million (£17.1 million). By integrating Fantech into its portfolio, Volution aims to leverage its well-established brands to tap into new market applications, particularly in the commercial sector.

The acquisition will significantly contribute to Volution’s revenue structure, with Australasia projected to account for over 30% of the Group’s revenue following the transaction. The deal aligns seamlessly with Volution’s long-term strategy of acquiring leading ventilation brands, following its previous expansions in the region since acquiring Simx in 2018.

In terms of financing, Volution plans to use proceeds from a newly secured £230 million multi-currency Sustainability Linked Revolving Credit Facility, coupled with cash reserves on its balance sheet. This move positions Volution to maintain a strong financial profile, with post-acquisition leverage expected to range between 1.5 to 1.7 times.

FAN Daily Cande Chart

FAN Daily Cande Chart

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