25th Mar 2026. 8.59am
Regency View:
Update
Regency View:
Update
It has been a fortnight where the market hasn’t just reacted to news, it has judged it. Strong results have not always been rewarded, while even minor concerns have been punished quickly. That kind of price action tends to show up when anxiety is elevated, and right now there is plenty of it.
What stands out is how sharp those reactions have become. The gap between expectation and delivery is being priced aggressively, and in several cases, the underlying performance tells a very different story to the share price move. That tension is where the opportunity sits.
Strong numbers, but the focus shifts forward at Atalaya
Atalaya (ATYM) delivered a very solid set of full year results, with production hitting the top end of guidance and EBITDA climbing to €179.8m. Free cash flow of €107.4m has strengthened the balance sheet further, leaving the group in a clear net cash position and able to support both dividends and growth investment.
Costs are moving in the right direction, with cash costs and AISC both trending lower, helped by improved operational performance and higher by-product credits. On the face of it, this is a business executing well across both production and cost control.
The negative reaction feels more about what comes next. Weather disruption into early 2026, the E-LIX impairment, and a step up in investment have introduced uncertainty. This looks like a market focusing on execution risk rather than what has already been delivered.
Themes: Full year results, commodity exposure, growth investment
What we are watching next: Delivery against 2026 guidance and capital allocation discipline
ATYM Daily Candle Chart
Momentum builds as Balfour Beatty leans into demand
Balfour Beatty’s (BBY) full year results landed exactly where they needed to. Revenue grew 8%, underlying profit rose 16%, and the order book jumped 23% to a record £22.7bn, providing clear forward visibility.
Cash generation remains a defining feature. With average net cash of £1.2bn, the group has both resilience and flexibility, reflected in a £200m buyback and a higher dividend. That combination continues to resonate well with the market.
Demand trends remain supportive, particularly across UK energy infrastructure and US buildings. The market reaction was firmly positive, reflecting confidence that this is not just a strong year, but part of a broader multi-year opportunity.
Themes: Full year results, infrastructure demand, shareholder returns
What we are watching next: Margin progression and execution across key projects
BBY Daily Candle Chart
A steady update from Bytes, but expectations were higher
Bytes (BYIT) delivered a solid trading update, with double digit growth in gross invoiced income and strong cash conversion, finishing the year with over £98m in cash. Operationally, the business continues to execute well.
The issue lies in the outlook. Guidance points to continued growth, but with operating profit broadly flat as the group absorbs higher costs and continues to invest. That shift from clean growth to a reinvestment phase has clearly disappointed.
There are still positives under the surface. Growth strengthened into the second half, and structural demand for cloud, cyber and AI remains intact. But in the current environment, “in line” is not enough when expectations are elevated.
Themes: Trading update, margin pressure, AI demand
What we are watching next: Evidence that investment translates into re-accelerating profit growth
BYIT Daily Candle Chart
Diploma upgrades again and keeps the compounding story intact
Diploma (DPLM) has started its life in our FTSE Investor open positions exactly as you would want. A meaningful upgrade to FY26 guidance, with organic growth now expected at 9% and margins pushing towards 25%, signals strong underlying momentum.
Growth remains broad-based across the group, supported by structural demand in areas like aerospace, defence and data infrastructure. The acquisition pipeline continues to add an extra layer of growth, with recent deals already contributing.
This is a familiar story with Diploma. Consistent execution, steady margin expansion and disciplined capital deployment. The market reaction reflects that confidence, with the upgrade reinforcing the long-term compounding narrative.
Themes: Upgraded guidance, compounding growth, acquisitions
What we are watching next: Continued delivery against upgraded expectations
DPLM Daily Candle Chart
Sabre shows the value of discipline through the cycle
Sabre’s (SBRE) full year results highlight what disciplined underwriting looks like. Profit before tax rose 4.9%, while margins improved to 19.2%, even as gross written premiums declined.
That reduction in premiums was intentional. The group chose to step back in less attractive pricing conditions, prioritising margin over volume. That decision is now feeding through into stronger profitability and a more stable outlook.
The market responded positively to the combination of improving margins, a higher dividend and a new share buyback. Early signs of premium growth returning in 2026 add another layer to the story.
Themes: Full year results, underwriting discipline, capital returns
What we are watching next: Premium growth trajectory and claims inflation
SBRE Daily Candle Chart
Softcat upgrades as AI demand feeds through
Softcat (SCT) delivered a standout first half, with gross profit up 22.6% and operating profit up 27.3%, prompting a full year guidance upgrade. That level of growth, combined with strong cash conversion, reinforces the quality of the model.
AI is increasingly becoming a real driver of demand. Customers are investing in infrastructure, data and security, and Softcat sits directly in that spend cycle. The breadth of its offering means it benefits across multiple layers of that trend.
There is some caution around tougher comparatives in the second half, but the underlying momentum remains strong. The market reaction reflects growing confidence in sustained growth.
Themes: Half year results, AI demand, guidance upgrade
What we are watching next: Strength of second half performance
SCT Daily Candle Chart
TP ICAP delivers record results with capital returns to match
TP ICAP (TCAP) reported record revenue and profit, with adjusted EBIT reaching £348m and margins continuing to expand. Growth across Global Broking and Liquidnet highlights the strength of the diversified model.
Cost discipline remains tight, allowing operating leverage to come through. That is translating into higher profitability and strong cash generation, supporting an £80m share buyback alongside dividend growth.
The broader backdrop remains supportive. Market volatility and complexity tend to drive activity, and TP ICAP sits at the centre of that flow. The outlook remains steady, even with some currency headwinds.
Themes: Full year results, market volatility, share buyback
What we are watching next: Sustainability of trading conditions and margin expansion
TCAP Daily Candle Chart
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