Market Overview

Dear Investor,

It’s been a week of bluster and brinkmanship, the likes of which we have perhaps not seen for a generation. Heinous threats from Donald Trump have been followed by a fragile ceasefire, creating a backdrop that remains extremely tense. Yet despite the increasingly extreme tone of the headlines, markets have remained far more composed than many would have expected.

For UK stocks, the rotation back into risk began before some of Trump’s most aggressive messaging had even hit the wires. The FTSE’s relief rally started to build into the Easter period and continued despite the has continued despite the escalation in tone, suggesting that positioning and sentiment were already shifting independently of the headlines.

What stands out is the growing disconnect between rhetoric and reaction. Trump’s increasingly erratic tone, swinging from threats of escalation to sudden calls for de escalation, has created a constant stream of noise, but markets appear to be filtering it out. Whether that reflects confidence or complacency remains an open question, but it is clear that words alone are no longer enough to shift positioning in a meaningful way.

The key question now is what comes next. We have had the relief rally across equities and the initial reaction in oil, but the next phase will be driven by whether rhetoric can translate into reality. Can shipping flows genuinely normalise through the Strait of Hormuz, and will Trump’s push towards de escalation hold, or will markets once again be forced to react to another abrupt shift in tone.

For now, investors appear willing to trust the deescalation narrative, but that patience may prove limited if actions fail to match the rhetoric.

Wishing you a great weekend,

Tom

Market Movers

On the rise: Greatland Resources (AIM:GGP) +14.8% on the week

Greatland Resources moved higher this week after delivering a strong March quarter production update, reinforcing confidence in both operational execution and cash generation. The group reported quarterly production of 82,723oz of gold alongside copper output, putting year-to-date production at just under 250,000oz and keeping the company firmly on track to meet, or slightly exceed, full-year guidance.

There was also reassurance around operations in the context of the current Middle East conflict. The company confirmed that Telfer remains insulated from supply disruptions, with secure fuel sourcing, on-site power generation and more than 12 months of stockpiles. In a market increasingly focused on geopolitical risk, that level of operational resilience adds another layer of confidence to the investment case.

Regency View: Strong production, a rapidly growing cash pile and zero debt underline the quality of the business at current gold prices. With earnings momentum building and full exposure to the gold price, this remains one of the cleaner ways to play strength in the sector.

On the slide: Entain (LSE:ENT) -7.6% on the week

Entain has continued to decline in recent months, with the shares now down around 30% year to date and nearly 50% below last summer’s highs. The move reflects a sustained period of weakness in price action, with the stock consistently trading below its key moving averages.

Financially, the group continues to report modest revenue growth, but profitability remains under pressure. Operating margins are negative, returns on capital remain weak, and net debt has continued to trend higher, while book value has declined over recent years.

Regency View: The trend remains firmly to the downside, with persistent weakness in both price action and underlying metrics. Until there are signs of stabilisation, the burden of proof remains on the bulls.

Sector Snapshot

It has been a strong week across the board, with Financials, Industrials and Real Estate leading the move higher as money rotates back into cyclicals. Materials and Telecoms also posted solid gains, while Tech joined the advance, suggesting this is more than just a narrow bounce. The FTSE had already started to lean back into risk ahead of the Easter break, and that shift has carried through this week as sentiment has steadied.

At the other end of the spectrum, Energy was the clear laggard, giving back some of its recent outperformance, while Healthcare was broadly flat. Utilities and Industrials sat towards the weaker end despite still closing higher, pointing to a market that is rotating rather than moving in one clean direction, with leadership shifting away from defensives and back towards growth-sensitive areas.

UK Price Action

It is a new week and having broken out from its descending retracement channel last week, the FTSE has held onto its gains and is now consolidating above the 50 day moving average. The recovery has been sharp and, somewhat incredibly, the market now sits just a few percent below its recent highs. From a technical perspective, that shift in behaviour is worth noting as it suggests the recent sell off may have been more of a shakeout than a structural change, with buyers quickly reasserting control and keeping the broader uptrend firmly intact.